Australian energy sector braces for changed export dynamics amidst price volatility

Amidst shifts in the global economic landscape, Australia's resources and energy sector is bracing for a recalibration in export dynamics.

Export shake

The December 2023 edition of the Resources and energy quarterly (REQ) and the 2023 Resources and energy major projects (REMP) were released yesterday by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.

The outlook for Australian resource and energy commodity exports has improved slightly since the September edition of the REQ, but forecasts suggest a decline in export earnings despite an uptick in the number of projects. These trends have been attributed to a blend of falling commodity prices and an optimization in global supply chains.

The December data showcases a nuanced panorama. The Chinese government's interventions to stabilize its property market have notably buoyed market sentiment, particularly impacting the surge in iron ore prices. However, analysts foresee a potential retreat in these prices over the next two years.

Coal prices, both thermal and metallurgical, are poised for a downward trajectory due to burgeoning inventories in China and supply challenges.

Oil prices are on a steady descent attributed to lackluster global demand, notwithstanding the partial offset provided by OPEC+ supply cuts. Despite sporadic conflicts in the Middle East, oil prices have yet to exhibit a substantial lasting impact.

Distinct trends emerge in specific minerals: lithium prices have receded due to an augmented supply and apprehensions regarding near-term demand for electric vehicle production. In contrast, uranium prices have soared due to supply constraints and heightened global interest in nuclear power, fueled by nations' pursuit of bolstering energy security and meeting net-zero commitments.

An undercurrent of change pervades the composition of projects within the sector. The growth of emerging energy and resource commodities necessitates recalibrations in reporting methodologies, reflecting limited or inconsistent benchmark data for such nascent commodities. This evolving landscape mandates adjustments in how projects are classified and documented, as delineated in the latest report.

Amidst these fluctuations, there's a discernible surge in critical minerals projects, signaling a diversification and evolution within Australia's resources and energy sector. Despite the challenges posed by declining prices, the sector remains dynamic and forward-looking, poised for growth and adaptation in an ever-evolving global landscape.

Read Resources and energy quarterly: December 2023 here.

Read Resources and energy major projects: 2023

Energy Industry Partners


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