Critical minerals and gold temper resources export declines amid growing project pipeline
Australia’s latest resources and energy forecasts point to steady export volumes and a growing pipeline of projects, with gold and critical minerals offsetting weaker energy prices and adding to activity across states including New South Wales.
Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are forecast to remain at elevated levels over the next two years, despite lower prices for several energy commodities and softer international demand.
The December 2025 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ), released by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, forecasts export earnings of $383 billion in 2025–26, down slightly from $385 billion in 2024–25. Earnings are then forecast to fall to $374 billion in 2026–27.
While this represents a modest decline from last year, the outlook is stronger than earlier expectations, with the 2025–26 forecast revised up by $14 billion and the 2026–27 forecast lifted by $20 billion compared with the September 2025 REQ.
Export volumes are expected to remain steady or increase for most commodities, reaching close to record levels by 2027.
Gold and iron ore shape the earnings mix
Gold is forecast to play a growing role in export earnings over the outlook period. Gold export earnings are projected to rise to $69 billion in 2025–26 and $74 billion in 2026–27, supported by higher prices and volumes.
Iron ore is expected to remain Australia’s largest single export earner, accounting for about one-quarter of all resources and energy export earnings over the next two years. However, as international supply increases, iron ore prices are forecast to ease. This is expected to reduce iron ore export earnings from $116 billion in 2024–25 to $107 billion by 2026–27.
In contrast, alumina earnings are forecast to decline as earlier price increases unwind, falling from more than $12 billion in 2024–25 to around $8 billion by 2026–27.
Energy exports trend lower
Energy exports are forecast to fall across the outlook period, driven by declining prices for thermal coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil.
Oil prices are expected to decline rapidly, with this flow-through also weighing on LNG export earnings. These trends contribute to the overall easing in export revenue, despite volumes remaining resilient.
Critical minerals regain ground
Critical minerals are forecast to make a larger contribution to export earnings over the next two years.
Export earnings from critical minerals are expected to rise from around $11 billion in 2024–25 to $14 billion in 2026–27. This increase reflects a recovery in lithium earnings following sharp price falls in recent years, with lithium exports forecast to rise from $4.8 billion to $6.8 billion over the same period.
Higher exports of manganese, rare earths and antimony are also expected to support growth in this category, which includes projects at various stages of development across New South Wales and other states.
Project pipeline expands despite completions
Alongside the export outlook, the 2025 Resources and Energy Major Projects (REMP) report shows continued growth in the national project pipeline.
At the end of October 2025, Australia had 432 major resource and energy projects under development, up from 407 projects a year earlier. These projects span mining, oil and gas, new energy and supporting infrastructure.
The value of committed projects — those that have reached a final investment decision — edged down from $65 billion to $62 billion, largely reflecting the completion of several projects over the year. Oil and gas projects continue to account for the largest share of committed investment by value.
Critical minerals feature strongly across the project list, making up around a quarter of projects at each stage of development. Later-stage critical minerals projects are estimated to represent around $19–20 billion in proposed investment.
Infrastructure projects account for $1.9 billion in committed investment and include gas pipelines, processing facilities, port and rail upgrades, and emissions-related upgrades that support resource operations, including those connected to NSW supply chains.
Minister points to sector resilience
Senator the Hon Tim Ayres said the latest reports show the sector continuing to operate at scale despite changing conditions.
“The reports highlight the strength and resilience of Australia’s resources sector, even amid softer global growth and ongoing trade uncertainties,” Senator Ayres said.
He said continued investment activity reflected confidence across the industry.
“Strong investment in major projects reflects industry confidence in Australia’s critical role in meeting global demand for minerals, energy, and resources.”
The Resources and Energy Quarterly: December 2025 and Resources and Energy Major Projects: 2025 reports were released on 19 December 2025 by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources.
