Export outlook lifted as investment reshapes Australia's resources mix
Higher commodity prices, continued investment and demand linked to artificial intelligence, electrification and energy systems have lifted Australia's export outlook, with new forecasts pointing to sustained activity across major resources and energy industries over the next five years.
Australia's resources and energy exports are expected to generate more revenue than previously forecast, with stronger commodity prices and resilient export volumes lifting earnings despite ongoing uncertainty in international trade.
The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources has revised forecast export earnings to $405 billion in 2025 to 2026 and $416 billion in 2026 to 2027. Those figures are $22 billion and $42 billion higher than forecasts released in December last year. Export earnings are then expected to ease to $371 billion by 2030 to 2031.
According to the report, higher than expected energy commodity prices following supply disruptions in the Middle East, together with continued strength in gold prices, have driven the upward revision. The report also points to rising investment in artificial intelligence, the expansion of renewable energy, electrification and efforts by many countries to strengthen supply chains as factors supporting demand for Australian commodities over the five year outlook.
Export volumes remain resilient
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said the latest forecasts demonstrate the sector's ability to continue delivering strong export returns, saying, "Australia’s resources and energy sector continues to deliver strong export earnings that support jobs, investment and economic growth, despite geopolitical uncertainty."
She said Australia continued to supply international markets consistently despite current challenges, adding, "Export volumes continue to remain strong, underlining Australia’s role as a reliable and stable supplier of resources and energy to our export partners and the region."
The report also notes that capital expenditure across Australia's resources and energy sectors continues to increase, reflecting ongoing investment across the industry.
Different commodities follow different paths
Iron ore is forecast to remain Australia's largest export commodity throughout the outlook period, accounting for more than one quarter of total resources and energy exports, although lower prices are expected to reduce export earnings over time as additional supply enters the market.
Gold export earnings are forecast to reach around $73 billion in 2026 to 2027 before easing later in the decade, supported by strong prices and higher export volumes. LNG export volumes are expected to remain steady, although export earnings are forecast to decline over the longer term as prices moderate.
Demand for copper, lithium, nickel, aluminium and other critical minerals is also expected to grow over the outlook period as electricity networks expand, battery deployment increases and renewable generation continues to be developed. The report forecasts Australia's critical minerals export earnings will continue rising as production expands and more refined products enter export markets.
Outlook assumes trade routes continue to recover
The forecasts assume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes from July, although the report notes that international trade is expected to take time to return to conditions seen before the recent conflict. It also presents an alternative scenario in which prolonged disruptions would keep energy commodity prices higher for longer, resulting in stronger export earnings for Australian energy producers.
For businesses involved in mining, energy production, engineering, equipment supply, logistics and industrial manufacturing, the revised outlook points to continued demand across multiple commodity sectors, with investment expected to remain active as producers respond to changing markets and longer term export opportunities.
