Resources and energy exports to hit record $296 billion in 2020-21
A new report has confirmed Australia’s resource and energy sector is now on track for a record year of exports value.
The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly from the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources covers a five-year outlook and highlights how the mining sector is poised to capture growth opportunities from the COVID-19 recovery.
Minister for Resources, Water and Northern Australia Keith Pitt said the forecast result shows how well the resources sector has managed the challenges of the past year and just how important it remains to our national economic success.
“Exports are forecast to earn a record $296 billion in 2020–21 and remain strong over the next five years, driven by ongoing demand for iron ore and growth in technology-related commodities such as lithium, nickel and copper,” Minister Pitt said.
The March Resources and Energy Quarterly forecasts overall export earnings to hit a record $296 billion in 2020-21, up from the December forecast of $279 billion, before a modest fall to $288 billion in 2021-22 and then stabilising over the outlook period.
Australia’s iron ore export earnings are forecast to reach a record high of $136 billion in 2020–21, up from the December forecast of $123 billion.
Exports of new technology related commodities are set to surge over the next five years, with lithium exports set to rise more than five-fold in real terms, nickel expected to almost double, and copper set to increase by a third over the outlook period.
Australia’s base metal exports are expected to grow over the short to medium term, as a rebound in global economic growth and industrial production increases the demand for Australian ferrous and non-ferrous metals.
The outlook for coal has improved since the December Resource and Energy Quarterly and export revenue and volumes have recovered.
Exports of metallurgical coal, used in steel making, are forecast to rise from a low of 173 million tonnes in 2020-21 to reach 191 million tonnes by 2025-26. Revenue is forecast to fall to $23 billion in 2020-21 from $35 billion in 2019-20 due to lower world prices, before recovering to $31 billion by 2025-26.
Thermal coal exports fell marginally from 213 million tonnes in 2019-20 to 206 million tonnes in 2020-21, but are projected to rebound to 231 million tonnes by 2025-26.
Australian LNG export earnings are forecast to fall from $48 billion in 2019-20 to $33 billion in 2020-21 due to weaker global prices and demand, before recovering to around $45 billion by 2025-26.