Fusion Energy - billions in private cash is flooding into fusion, will it pay off?

Professor Matthew Hole, Australian National University Mathematical Sciences Institute and School of Computing

Venue: Sydney Masonic Centre, 66 Goulburn Street, Sydney, NSW 2000

Time and Date: 5:30 for 6 pm AEDT Wednesday 18 February 2026

Presentation will be recorded for those unable to attend in person
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Abstract

Over the past five years, private-sector funding for fusion energy has exploded. The total invested has exceeded US$10 billion (A$15 billion), from a combination of venture capital, deep-tech investors, energy corporations and sovereign governments.

There are several drivers: increasing urgency for carbon-free power, advances in technology, new materials, improved control methods using artificial intelligence (AI), a growing ecosystem of private-sector companies, and a wave of capital from tech billionaires. This comes on the back of demonstrated progress in theory and experiments in fusion science.

Taming fusion for energy production is hard. Nature achieves fusion reactions in the cores of stars, at extremely high density and temperature and at astrophysical scale.

So far, fusion experiments have yet to continuously produce more energy than required by auxiliary heating to make the fusion reaction happen. The highest gain to date is 0.67, although gains above well unity have been demonstrated in brief pulses using high-powered lasers (a different technology path).

The public program most likely to demonstrate the scientific and technical basis for fusion energy is the ITER project. While the project has seen some delays, the vessel segments are being put together in record time. Research operations are now expected to begin in 2034, with deuterium–tritium fusion operation slated for 2039.

In tandem to ITER are several government projects, including the massively ambitious Chinese experiment Burning Experimental Superconducting Tokamak (BEST), the Commonwealth Fusion System’s SPARC tokamak, which has attracted some US$3 billion in investment – including Australian private money, and the recent US$6bn merger of Helion Energy with Trump Media. These initiatives promise accelerated time-line and very high returns – but have a high risk of failure. Even if they don’t meet their lofty goals, these projects will still accelerate the development of fusion energy by integrating new technology and diversifying risk.

In the long term, we have good reasons to pursue fusion energy – and to believe the technology can work. Despite this promise, Australian public investment has flat-lined. It would be foolhardy for the nation that co-discovered fusion, with enormous mineral resource potential to both support global decarbonisation and make profit, to not have at least some skin in the game.